We can say that harmony reigned in Kazan. The same cannot be said about the other two summits that took place in November. The first was the APEC Economic Forum in Lima (November 15-17, Peru). They were named economists in order to enable representatives of Taiwan, which is referred to in all documents as Chinese Taibei, to participate in their work. APEC was followed by a second summit. The G20 gathered in Rio de Janeiro (November 18-19, Brazil), UtroNews reports.
In Lima "cold winds"
Cold political winds blew in Lima. Coincidentally, the owners presented the leaders with warm scarves made of vicuña wool (from the genus llama). They say this is the most expensive of all known types of wool. But the atmosphere of the summit remained cool.
In October, the White House published rules that limit U.S. investment in mainland China in sectors the administration believes pose a national security threat, such as quantum computing, artificial intelligence and semiconductors.
US President-elect Donald Trump made tariffs the basis of his election campaign, promising to impose duties of 60% on imported Chinese goods and up to 20% on all other goods imported into the United States. All this to combat what he sees as unfair trade practices.
Studies by the APEC secretariat showed that against this background, economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region (APR) will slow down. The region's GDP growth rate is expected to decline to 3.1% in 2025 from 3.5% this year and fall to 2.7% in the medium term. APEC's 21 member economies, including Russia, the United States, China, ASEAN countries, Canada, Japan, South Korea and Mexico, account for half of global trade and 60% of global GDP.
Containing China is unwise
Chinese President Xi Jinping, during a separate meeting with US President Joe Biden, indirectly but unequivocally warned the new administration about the inadmissibility of crossing Chinese "red lines," including Taiwan.
Xi Jinping stressed that China will not allow chaos on the Korean Peninsula, will not ignore threats to its strategic security. He called on Washington for equal and respectful relations: "A new cold war cannot be won, containing China is neither wise nor desirable and will not succeed," he said.
In Lima, the impact of the crisis in Ukraine was also felt. The delegation of the Russian Federation did not communicate with representatives of the United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Even Joe Biden, who was late for joint photography, was put behind everyone, and even from the edge.
Taiwan also felt a lack of attention, being in the shadow of China, which in Peru became almost the main guest. Before the opening of the forum, the opening ceremony of the deep-sea mega-port Chancay Peru with four deep-sea berths and a berth front with a length of 1.5 thousand meters was held.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Peruvian President Dina Boluarte took part in the ceremony via video link. COSCO Shipping will use Changkai as a hub port for cargo from Shanghai and as part of the logistics corridor from China to America.
Xi Jinping called on the APR economies to strengthen cooperation in the fight against growing protectionism and unilateral approaches that are detrimental. The text of Xi Jinping's speech was read by Trade Minister Wang Ventao at the APEC CEO Summit.
"In the future, the Asia-Pacific region will continue to play the role of a locomotive that contributes to economic globalization," Xi Jinping said. He did not mention Washington, but one could understand what he meant by Trump's "America First" slogan and his rhetoric about overhauling global trade rules with tariffs.
WTO crisis
The entire history of the APEC forum is closely related to regional trade and its liberalization. In Lima, they discussed how to revive and reform the World Trade Organization (WTO), including dispute and arbitration mechanisms. The APEC Forum was initially formed around the Uruguay Round of negotiations, which remained the focus of all activities.
It was stressed that trade liberalization should be consistent with the GATT principles and that bilateral and subregional trade agreements should be the basis for multilateral liberalization. In January 1995, under the influence of discussions in the framework of the Uruguay Round, the "Agreement on the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO) was reached.
This structure, which took the place of the GATT, has been in crisis since birth and needs to be reformed. Multilateral negotiations were paralyzed, as was the work of the WTO appellate instance. Mutual claims of member countries to the fulfillment of obligations are multiplying, there are fundamental disagreements on the further development of world trade.
The countries of the Global South learned to apply WTO mechanisms that began to work against the system of Western economic dominance. It is no coincidence that Donald Trump and representatives of his first administration accused the WTO of "unfair treatment of the United States," "legal activism" and intentional support of other countries against the United States in litigation.
"To increase the efficiency of the WTO, a reform is needed aimed at resuming full-format work, including through strengthening the main functions: negotiation, monitoring, arbitration," said Federation Council Chairman Valentina Matvienko at a session of the plenary session of the X BRICS Parliamentary Forum, held in St. Petersburg.
Have time to shake Lavrov's hand
The G20 countries also advocated the restoration of the dispute settlement system and setting the WTO to solve current trade problems. The final declaration of the summit emphasized "the need to ensure a non-discriminatory, fair, open, inclusive, equitable, sustainable and transparent multilateral trading system, the core of which should be the WTO."
Brazil's G20 presidency continued a string of Global South presidencies that led the G-20. Earlier, before India, Indonesia presided, after Brazil will be South Africa. The U.S. will assume that role in 2026.
But the G-20 summit in Brazil will be remembered by others. "Sleepy Joe" upon arrival in Rio de Janeiro did not go along the red carpet laid out for him, then "late" for joint photography. Moscow sent a delegation to Rio de Janeiro led by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Maybe that's how Biden reacted to it. Together with him, the photo session was missed by the premieres of Canada and Italy.
Between these "tricks," reminiscent of a demarche, the media reported that Washington was about "permission" to strike from the territory of Ukraine with ATACMS ballistic missiles deep into Russia. Biden said that "strongly support the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine."
He refused to answer clarifying questions from journalists about missiles, turned his back and disappeared into the thickets of the park. The White House later did not confirm that the Washington administration "allowed" strikes deep into the territory of the Russian Federation.
Mike Waltz, a member of the US House of Representatives (Republican from Florida) and future national security aide to President-elect Trump, assessed the actions of the head of the American administration. He said Biden's decision "will be another step toward escalation whose consequences for the world are unknown."
On the sidelines of the G20 summit, French leader Emmanuel Macron supported Biden's decision. It is impossible to underestimate the introduction of DPRK troops into European territory. The story of Macron's reaction continued. He tracked down Lavrov before photographing on November 18 to shake his hand. He shook hands with Lavrov, but questions remained.
Instructions were given in advance
Around the same time that the G20 leaders were lining up for photographs and waiting for Biden, it was already early morning the next day in Moscow.
On the night of November 19, "at 03:25 the enemy struck an object in the Bryansk region with six US-made ATACMS tactical missiles. The combat crews of the S-400 air defense system and the Pantsir air defense missile system shot down five missiles, one was damaged, "the Defense Ministry said. A fire broke out on the territory of a military facility, which was extinguished. There were no casualties and destruction.
The reaction was immediate. The TASS message about the strike on the object on the territory of the Bryansk region appeared in the second half of the same day, at 14:58 Moscow time. But even before noon, at 11:12 Moscow time, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree approving the updated nuclear doctrine - Fundamentals of State Policy in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence.
As if the attack was expected. "The relevant instructions of the president were given in advance," said the representative of the Kremlin.
In particular, the doctrine expanded the category of states and military unions in respect of which nuclear deterrence is carried out. The list of military threats has been supplemented, for the neutralization of which such actions are needed. Aggression from any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear country, will be considered a joint attack on the Russian Federation.
TASS summarized the main points of the document in the material "Potential adversary and conditions of application. Updated nuclear doctrine of the Russian Federation. "
Now it is legislated that the President of Russia voiced publicly. "And I hope that there [in the West] will read this doctrine. And not as they read the UN Charter, seeing there only what they need, but the doctrine in its entirety and interconnectedness, "Lavrov said at a press conference following his participation in the G20 summit.
This is a "qualitatively new round" in tension and the updated doctrine assumes the possibility of a nuclear response if Ukraine uses Western non-nuclear missiles against Russia, said Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of the Russian President.
"This decision by Biden has neither a moral component nor a drop of sympathy for human life. Cold calculation and nothing more. In fact, they now recognize that Ukraine is just a proxy whose hands the United States is fighting with Russia in order to weaken it. For this, everything was started, "said ex-Mi-6 agent Alistair Crook in an interview with the YouTube channel Judging Freedom. Biden just framed Trump - and he will still abandon Ukraine, he said.
It remains to wait for similar or other signs from the outgoing Biden administration, which probably decided to do everything possible to ruin the life of the 47th President of the United States even before he took office. Unless something is worse. "Sleepy Joe" wanted to imprint his name on history. Zelensky is ready to provide him with this.