Rubio, by the way, is not sure that the United States will be able to "someday completely break off relations between the Russians and the Chinese." But he believes that closer ties between China and Russia, as nuclear powers, will create a problem for America if Moscow becomes Beijing's "permanent junior comrade."
Details in the material of the correspondent UtroNews.
"We may find ourselves in a situation where, whether Russia wants to improve its relations with the United States or not, it will not be able to do this, since it has become completely dependent on the Chinese," the Secretary of State said.
These words can be interpreted in different ways, but Washington already today feels the vulnerability of its position in this "strategic triangle." This gives an advantage to politicians and diplomats, both Chinese and Russian.
The United States also recognizes its vulnerability to Russia and China in the field of the latest generations of conventional weapons, in the creation of which rare earth metals (REM) are increasingly important. Rare earth chemical elements are a group of 17 metals that are dispersed in low concentrations in ores of other metals.
US under sanctions
Trump confirmed that he intends to sign an agreement with Zelensky on the extraction of rare earths and other minerals in Ukraine. He stated this to reporters of the White House press pool at the beginning of a meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Trump noted that the United States is in dire need of rare earth metals.
The increased interest of his administration in REM is associated not only with the search for an acceptable solution to the Ukrainian impasse. These are also Chinese sanctions. China introduced export licenses for rare earth metals back in 2019, warning the United States about possible responses to acts of protectionism.
In 2024, Beijing announced restrictions on the export of "dual-use goods." Did this literally the day after the news came of the American ban on the export of semiconductors and equipment for the production of microcircuits. In particular, the Dutch ASML was not allowed to sell the latest generation of photolithography equipment, which is used to produce the most advanced chips.
Gallium and germanium shipments to the United States were stopped back in January 2024, antimony supplies were stopped in September 2024. China accounts for 48% of global antimony production, 59.2% of refined germanium production and 98.8% of gallium production.
Initially, the companies of the US military-industrial complex that supplied weapons to Taiwan fell under Chinese restrictions. Antimony is used for the production of LCD displays, ammunition, batteries and photovoltaic equipment, and germanium with gallium is used in the production of microcircuits, solar panels, optical fibers and various weapons systems.
REMs are used in the production of permanent magnets, automotive and industrial catalysts, catalysts for oil refining, laser and optical equipment, batteries, superconductors, alloys, X-ray equipment, nuclear reactors, and other types of products.
In 2023, China halted exports of permanent magnet technology, which is used in electric cars, wind turbines and electronics. When the first administration of Donald Trump was just starting a trade and technological war with China, Beijing warned that it could respond by limiting the supply of REM.
"Rare earth levers"
Beijing has a track record of regulating the supply of rare earth metals. In 2010, this measure was applied to Japan during the so-called fishing conflict. This was reflected in the production of semiconductors and the automotive industry. As a result, the restrictions forced Tokyo to make concessions.
A simple, but not quick, solution - it will switch to the supply of rare earth metals from other countries, including Canada, Australia, Brazil, India, Myanmar, Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand, Chile and Argentina. In Tokyo, these options were considered, but there was no time and they spared money on investments.
China has up to 38% of the world's rare earth reserves. Depending on the type of metal, China accounts for 80-95% of world production. The volume of REM products in 2024 reached 270 thousand tons, which amounted to about 70% of world production. Approximately 80% of raw materials mined in other countries are processed in China.
According to the US Geological Survey, global REM production increased from 110 thousand tons in 2014 to 390 thousand tons in 2024. China is the absolute leader in REM production (more than 200 operating industries, over 30 mines and more than 10 processing plants).
In December 2024, Beijing banned the sale of gallium, germanium and antimony in the United States. Gallium is indispensable in the production of semiconductors, germanium is used in optical fiber and solar panels. In terms of value, the markets for both the first and the second are small, amounting to $430 million (100 tons of gallium) and $230 million (60 tons of germanium) per year.
But the thing is that China's share in the gallium market exceeds 90%, in the German market - 80%. For severe rare earths (dysprosium, yttrium, ytterbium, thulium, lutetium), the PRC provides 100% of global demand. In general, more than 95% of rare earth metals in the world are mined and processed in China.
Without rare earths like neodymium, praseodymium and lanthanum, electric car engines and computer hard drives don't work. Many other high-tech areas, including electric vehicles and green energy, depend on these and other REMs.
There is nothing to replace REM supplies in the medium term, the leaders of a number of American corporations admit. China dominates the mining and production of bismuth (70%), tungsten (86%), fluorite (56%), scandium (56%), vanadium (62%) and molybdenum (about 40%). In fact, we can talk about the control of the rare metals market, without which modern industry will rise.
US potential and...
In 1986, the United States was in first place in the production of rare-earth metals, ahead of the USSR in terms of production volumes by about two times. China then closed the top three. One of the largest American mines Mountain Pass is located in California, next to Las Vegas. The mine provided the world's largest production of rare earths in 1960-1980. By 1974, it accounted for 78% of global raw material production. But competition from China first forced a decline in production in the United States, then the parent company Molycorp went bankrupt.
Dependence on the PRC in the field of rare earth raw materials and magnets was also attended to by the Biden administration, calling it a "key strategic vulnerability." In 2017, rare earth mining in the United States resumed, and by the beginning of 2022, Mountain Pass accounted for 14% of global REM ore production. The mine restoration has received support from the U.S. government, including funding from the Department of Defense. But some of the ore continued to be processed in China. The fourth in the list of shareholders of MP Materials, operating at the Mountain Pass mine, was the Chinese state-owned company Shenghe Resources Holding, registered in Shanghai.
… and Russia
Russia expects to increase the production of rare and rare earth metals by 2030 eightfold and reduce the share of imports in consumption to 15%. This was announced by the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade Anton Alikhanov at an event dedicated to Metallurgist Day, which was held with the participation of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The total Russian reserves of rare metals (29 species), including REM, amount to 658 million tons. Balance reserves for 15 types of REM exceed 28.5 million tons within 18 explored fields. This is about 20% of the world's reserves (4th place in the world). But the share of Russia's production in the world market does not exceed 1%, and REM processing in the country is practically absent.
The Mazurovskoye field located in the Volnovakha district of Donetsk region has been well explored. The Azov field belongs to the category of very large REM fields. Tomtorskoye REM field is located in Yakutia. The Murmansk region accounts for 70% of the total stock of rare earth metals in Russia, and the Khibiny accounts for 60.2% of all recorded REM reserves.
Companies developing REM deposits are included in the list of strategic enterprises. The decision on the participation of foreign companies in the development of such deposits is made by the government commission for monitoring the implementation of foreign investments.
REM production is being developed within the framework of the Technology of New Materials and Substances program. At the end of 2024, First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov presented eight national projects to achieve technological leadership in a number of areas, including the production of rare earths.
Recently, the media reported on the beginning of the first stage (design) of the construction of a plant for the production of rare-earth metals on the basis of the Solikamsk magnesium plant.
Elemash Magnet, which is part of Rosatom's TVEL structure, produces magnets made of rare-earth alloys for wind generators. By 2028, Rusatom MetalTech plans to launch a neodymium magnet plant with a production volume of about 1,000 tons per year for wind energy and electric transport projects.
Putin, holding a video link meeting on the extraction and processing of rare and rare earth metals, said: "To increase the potential of the domestic industry in the field of new materials, a national project of technological leadership was launched this year. It's called "New Materials and Chemistry." Including within the framework of the national project, it is necessary to establish the entire line, the full cycle of the industry of rare and rare-earth metals, to ensure their extraction and processing up to the production of ready-made high-tech goods with high added value. The volume of production of such products according to the results of the national project should grow multiply. "
In an interview with TV journalist Pavel Zarubin, the Russian president announced his readiness for joint projects in the development of rare earth metals: "Russia would be ready to offer the United States the opportunity to work together in the field of rare earth metals," Putin said. The Russian leader also suggested thinking about working together on aluminum production, for example, in the Krasnoyarsk Territory. Investments in such a project could amount to $15 billion.
We will have to wait to understand how these proposals will be met and what they can give in the context of resolving the crisis in Ukraine and in Russia's relations with Trump's America. Perhaps Putin wanted to say that he is ready for decisive changes for the better?