Japan and the atomic bomb

The main internal political task of Ishiba will be early elections to the lower house of parliament, which he, not yet being elected prime minister, proposed to hold on October 27, the UtroNews correspondent reports.

Ishiba called Japan's relations with the United States the "cornerstone" of Japanese diplomacy and security, as well as the foundation of peace in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond. Tokyo intends to develop relations with Seoul, Canberra, G7 countries and the global South.

After his election, Isiba also said that he would continue to seek a peace treaty with Russia, would support the Zelensky regime and maintain the anti-Russian sanctions regime. Ishiba, like 12 other members of his government, were included in the Russian sanctions list back in 2022 in response to Tokyo's policy: they are banned from entering the Russian Federation.

There was a shock, but...

Ishiba advocates strengthening Japan's defense capability and Tokyo's independence in security matters. He supports the creation of an Asian version of NATO, proposes in this regard to discuss the prospect of deploying nuclear weapons in the region and "joint possession" of these weapons, allegedly in terms of joint decision on their use.

Ishiba made two statements on the nuclear topic. He said that he would not forget the shock experienced from the footage of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima by the United States: "In the end, I would like to create a world without nuclear weapons. I will never forget the shock that I experienced while studying in the sixth grade of junior school, when I saw footage of the consequences of the atomic bomb that the United States dropped on Hiroshima, "said the newly elected prime minister."

It was no coincidence that Hiroshima was chosen as the target for the first nuclear strike. The city met all the criteria to achieve the maximum number of victims and destruction: a plain surrounded by hills, low development and flammable wooden buildings.

Japanese premieres have previously avoided talking publicly about who dropped the Baby and Fat Man bombs on Japanese cities. This was the position of Prime Minister Kishida and Hiroshima Mayor Kazumi Matsui, when during the ceremony on the occasion of the 79th anniversary of the attack, they never mentioned the United States in their speeches. They did not name those who gave orders to drop atomic bombs.

It was said that the operation helped prevent the Soviet landing on Hokkaido.

In Washington, to this day, they argue that the bombing was justified, they refuse to apologize.

Ishiba also said that he would like to see a world without nuclear weapons, only he does not know "how to link the deterrence potential with the abandonment of nuclear weapons." Japan adheres to the "three non-nuclear principles" of not having, producing or importing nuclear weapons, approved by parliament in 1971. These obligations did not receive the force of law, but the country's prime ministers confirm them. Although it is clear that US Navy ships based in Japanese ports may not be reckoned with these obligations.

.. but "restrain" must be jointly

In an article for the Hudson Institute (an organization recognized as undesirable in Russia), Ishiba suggested that "Ukraine today is Asia tomorrow. If we replace Russia with China and Ukraine with Taiwan, the absence of a NATO-like collective self-defense system in Asia means that wars are likely to erupt because there are no mutual defense obligations. Under these conditions, the creation of an Asian version of NATO is necessary to contain China. "

Ishiba says his government faces the challenge of "elevating the Japan-US alliance to the level of the US-UK alliance. Japan must develop its own military strategy and become independent in security matters until it is ready to share its strategy and tactics with the United States on an equal footing. "

He believes that the current security treaty is drawn up in such a way that the United States is obliged to "protect" Japan, and it is obliged to "provide bases." Now is the time to change this "asymmetric bilateral treaty." It is possible that the treaty and the status-of-forces agreement could be revised to allow the Self-Defense Forces to be stationed in Guam to enhance joint capabilities.

Japan, according to Ishiba, "should, in particular, consider the possibility of deploying American nuclear weapons or simply the issue of deploying nuclear weapons in the region." He explained in an interview with Kyodo that the idea of ​ ​ "joint possession" of nuclear weapons is not about ownership or control, but about the decision-making process.

Ishiba also stated in the said article that "the United States and Japan [have] previously revised the command and control structure of the Self-Defense Forces and the US Armed Forces in Japan, began joint development and production of defense equipment such as missiles, coordinated extended deterrence actions."

The Asian version of NATO?

Ishiba advocates support for Taiwan and proposes creating an Asian version of NATO to deter China. He announced the decision of the Cabinet of Ministers to broadly interpret the Constitution in order to have the right to collective self-defense.

"The Japanese Self-Defense Forces, which were allowed to use force in response to a direct attack on Japan, can now fight back if certain conditions are met, even if the attack occurs on a country with which Japan has close relations," Ishiba said.

But this idea of ​ ​ creating a bloc of countries in Asia bound by a collective defense obligation, following the example of NATO, has still unclear prospects, despite regular meetings within the Quad Quartet and AUKUS activity.

"Unlike Europe, Asia is made up of countries with different cultures and different political systems. Each country has a different relationship with China, "said Ishiba's rival in the race for the post of head of the LDP, former party secretary general Toshimitsu Motegi.

US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink noted that it is too early to talk about collective security in the region. We must continue to build a network of formal and informal relations, "he said, speaking at the Stimson Center in Washington.

Former director of the Asian Department of the US National Security Council Michael Green expressed the opinion that the idea of ​ ​ "Asian NATO" is at the moment "something of a fantasy."

"We are not considering a strategic architecture of this type," said Foreign Minister Subramanyam Jaishankar, quoted by Reuters.

"I don't think this idea will be realized just because I became prime minister," Ishiba himself said. But he noted that he intends to intensify discussions among those who share his ideas.

Japan may...

It is too early to put an end to this, since years earlier the newly elected prime minister admitted that Japan could have its own nuclear weapons and should be ready to quickly create them. Then he made a reservation - "in case of a threat" in order to restrain the enemy with such a "willingness." Which of its neighbors Japan could "restrain," Ishiba did not specify, only spoke about the right of Japan to deliver a preemptive strike on the DPRK.

That was in 2013. Perhaps the priorities have changed since then. Although Ishiba has experience in this field, in 2002-2004 he headed the Department of National Defense and the Ministry of Defense in 2007-2008. When he was the head of the defense department, he led the launch of the first Japanese reconnaissance satellite, was engaged in the joint development of the SM-3 Block IIA ballistic missile with the United States.

Japan can now independently produce nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles, Nikolai Patrushev, assistant to the President of Russia, chairman of the Russian Maritime Collegium, said in an interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta.

After the accident at the Japanese Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant in 2011, it was reported that the thorium-232 isotope was found on the surface of radioactive particles that entered the atmosphere. These data allowed experts to conclude that there was undeclared activity on the development of a weapons-grade isotope of uranium-233 from thorium-232 at Fukushima-1. All this, despite the officially declared nuclear-free status.

Maria Zakharova drew attention to Tokyo's growing involvement in joint US nuclear missions, multilateral exercises with aircraft certified for nuclear missions, as well as to the increasing discussion of the possibility of deploying American medium-range missiles in Japan. "Japan, increasing its military capabilities, actually violates the still existing legislative restrictions in this area," the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry recalled and called on official Tokyo to learn lessons "from the inhuman pages of its own history."