Ecuador between cartels and the United States

The crisis in Ecuador is a "civil war" with criminality, which the United States will not fail to take advantage of in order to strengthen its influence. Will Ukraine be in an unexpected plus?

In Ecuador, large-scale riots continue, covering almost the entire country: the army and police are fighting right on the streets of cities with rebel gangs - mainly organized by cartels for the production and sale of prohibited substances.

Like vultures, Ecuador's neighbors in the Western Hemisphere flew to the crisis, trying to take advantage of the state's weakness to advance their own interests in the country and the entire region.

What is happening in Ecuador and what actions the team of President Daniel Noboa is taking to rein in the crowds of bandits - the correspondent of The Moscow Post understood.

Right on Orthodox Christmas, January 7, the leader of the Los Choneros criminal group Adolfo Macias, nicknamed "Fito," escaped from the prison in Guayaquil in Ecuador. After that, riots took place in several penitentiary institutions. The next day, January 8, Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa declared a state of emergency in the country.

During the riots that broke out, representatives of Fito and other cartels dealing with illegal substances began to attack other prisons and police stations, freeing more and more criminals. Real chaos began on the streets of cities, especially the capital Quito.

Two days after the start, on January 9, in the largest Ecuadorian city of Guayaquil, armed men broke into the building of the TC Televisión TV channel and took journalists hostage. Police released them within hours, arresting 13 people involved in the seizure. Surprisingly, as soon as the criminals did not have time to detonate improvised explosive devices, which were shown on the air, threatening journalists.

However, so far this is just one of the few successful episodes of the authorities. The Ecuadorian security forces, who were at the center of the riots, were especially unlucky. Representatives of the cartels seized police stations, put law enforcement officers on their knees and forced them to say what they would say on camera. Others were lucky much less - they were simply shot at immediately.

On the same day, January 9, the leader of the second largest criminal group of the country "Los Lobos" Fabricio Colon Pico, nicknamed Captain Pico, also fled from the Chimborazo prison in Riobamba (she, in particular, claimed responsibility for the murder of Ecuadorian presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio in August 2023). According to the Prosecutor General's Office, the escape took place against the background of clashes between prisoners, police and prison staff. A total of 39 prisoners fled; according to police, 17 of them have already been detained.

What are the "rioters" seeking from criminality? These riots have no political goals. The leaders of the groups do not nominate them, preferring to take hostages and ask for ransom. Another requirement is the release from prisons of the remaining representatives of the cartels, which the government naturally cannot go to.

The main goal of these riots on the part of gangs is to show their own strength, to demonstrate their ability to engage in clashes with the army. The underlying goal is to develop your own illegal business. In this sense, a coup in the classical sense from the "rioters" is unlikely.

This is not to say that such "street wars" are something new. This has happened more than once, for example, in Mexico - to the point that police and military helicopters were forced to fly through the streets of cities, shooting at bandits. However, in terms of the scale of the clashes, Ecuador "surpassed" all the closest "competitors," counting Mexico.

And here the United States and Russia

What does this crisis mean in the context of world politics and international relations, and can it somehow affect Russia? Maybe, however, indirectly. This whole situation shows, be that as it may, the weakness of the central government and the apparatus of Daniel Noboa. Which, by the way, is considered very loyal to the administration of Joe Biden and pursues a generally favorable policy for the United States.

However, falling - push. Both the United States and other neighbors of Ecuador in the Western Hemisphere have already rushed to take advantage of the situation. The leaders of the countries of South America - Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Venezuela, Colombia, Peru - supported the authorities of Ecuador and called for a consolidated fight against crime.

Quito was supported by the Organization of American States (OAS), which includes 34 countries in the Americas. Peru has strengthened border protection and introduced an emergency regime in its northern regions. Russia condemned the actions of the criminals and expressed the hope that the country's authorities would be able to regain control of the situation. China also supported Quito's actions and suspended the work of its diplomatic missions in Ecuador.

The newly elected President of Argentina Javier Miley showed special zeal. He was the first to propose the introduction of foreign troops into Ecuador, in this case, Argentine. It is clear that this is more of an empty PR, but the dubious authority of the "libertarian" Miley is still held on all this PR.

The actions of the United States turned out to be much more specific and meaningful. Moreover, the Ukrainian context was also involved. Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa proposed that the United States hand over to Washington old military equipment supplied by Russia and Ukraine in exchange for a new one from Uncle Sam. Few doubt that he makes such statements in agreement with the Biden administration.

The point here is this: the United States will strengthen Ecuador's dependence on Washington's policy through arms supplies, and at the same time will load its military-industrial complex even more. And the old transferred from Quito can be sent for disposal to Ukraine, because the bins of the Pentagon and its allies are pretty empty. Thus, Biden cynically kills two hares under the guise of helping the South American state.

Ecuador's military guards order on the streets of Quito. Photo: https://dzen.ru/a/ZZ69ClZH3TRQDeTZ

There is no doubt that Ukraine will warmly support this decision. Moreover, they will be happy with both hands for the continuation of the bloodshed in Ecuador, because this leads to further military assistance from the United States and the supply of decommissioned equipment. Can this stop violence, let alone change the balance of power in the SWO zone? No, he can't. But the benefits of this are, first of all, the United States.

The other side of the issue is the oil business. And here the advantages can be for Russia. Ecuador exports under 800 thousand barrels of oil per day. If even half or 30% of these volumes fall as a result of the crisis in the economy, disruption of supply chains and other things, prices for "black gold" around the world will rise.