Without exaggeration, circles from the turmoil in Afghanistan diverge along the country itself up to its northern borders, capturing Pakistan, the Eurasia region and the Indo-Pacific region, reports The Moscow Post correspondent.
A separate epicenter of these tectonic shifts has emerged in Washington. Fox News ridicules President Biden and his interview on the situation in Afghanistan, which called into question either the competence of the recently looted US intelligence community, or the soundness of judgment of the head of the White House himself, who managed to get the nickname "Joe Taliban" (a hint of a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation).
Former US President Donald Trump said that Joe Biden fell to his knees in front of the radical Taliban movement (a terrorist organization banned in Russia), that the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan looks like surrender. The agenda of the US Congress includes the issue of impeachment of the president, now Joe Biden.
Washington fever
Washington and Kabul's agreements with the Taliban (a terrorist organization banned in Russia) in Doha reflected the crisis of diplomacy in solving the Afghan problem. The rapid fall of power and the flight of President Ashraf Ghani destroyed the basis of these agreements. It is reported that the Pentagon opposed the decision of the White House on the accelerated withdrawal of the contingent, the NATO leadership was also against a hasty withdrawal of troops with a clear date. It turned out that the Pentagon's transportation capabilities for evacuation are limited. The White House resorted to the services of civil airlines for the removal of refugees.
The source of the "weakness virus" that hit Washington was in Kabul. The carrier of the infection was an international airport, where a dramatic evacuation can be considered a symbol of the collapse of Washington's prestige. This has become a kind of reality show "White House 2.0," in which all its participants plunge into the waves of a new geostrategic reality, as in the death of "Titanic." Worse, the loss of control over the evacuation became a symbol of a twenty-year adventure that cost (according to the latest data) 2.2 trillion dollars, which claimed thousands of lives, leading to a humanitarian disaster in Afghanistan.
The cunning host of ABC News, George Stephanopoulos, who had recently framed Biden with the word "killer" in another sensational interview, now loyally asked the president about options to avoid "mistakes in the withdrawal of troops." Meanwhile, the question in the United States is "does Joe Biden understand," which means the humiliating flight of Americans from Kabul for the country he leads?
Tucker Carlson, one of the hosts of FOX News Channel, commenting on Biden's interview, noted that it "shows weakness in the heart of the US administration... a weakness that cannot be corrected... and over time, it will become a real threat. "
And the real threat is that the system and institutions written on paper are corrupted by corruption, nepotism, financial lawlessness, systemic dishonesty of politicians and the weakness of public control over power. America weakened sharply after January 20, 2021, when Biden was sworn in. And this is how the Americans themselves assess what is happening.
We only add that the internal split is deepened by "deep democrats" like Hilary Clinton, who just a year ago stated that "he (Trump) has yet to speak out as the president about the award appointed for the heads of American soldiers." In an inexplicable focus on the conflict with Moscow, any reason is good, even the war of America and NATO in Afghanistan!
Kremlin offers
The CSTO was in the spotlight, could become the main active force in a new round of terrorist threat to Russia and neighboring countries. At a press conference following talks with Angela Merkel, the Russian president noted that "it is especially important now to prevent the penetration of terrorists of all stripes into the territory of states adjacent to Afghanistan, including under the guise of refugees." He also agreed with the head of Turkey to strengthen coordination on Afghan issues.
Commenting on the NATO operation in Afghanistan, Vladimir Putin said that "of course, it cannot be called successful... it is not in our interests to stomp in this place now and talk about it as some kind of failure. " Russia is interested in ensuring that the situation in Afghanistan is stable, counting on the responsible behavior of the West in efforts to prevent the collapse of the state.
Western politicians would have to realize that "experimentation" with the imposition of unusual forms of government and public life only leads to the destruction of states, the degradation of their political and social systems. According to the Russian president, "this is the lesson of Afghanistan." Russia, together with the United States and European countries, must do everything in order to join forces to support the Afghan people, normalize the situation in the country, and establish good-neighbourly relations with it.
Overthrown power defends
The Russian Foreign Ministry, "positively evaluating" the first days of the Taliban movement in power "(a terrorist organization banned in Russia), said it did not intend to rush to exclude the movement banned in Russia from the list of terrorist organizations. According to the deputy head of the department Oleg Syromolotov, Moscow adheres to the same position by recognizing the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. But he considers important the assurances of the Taliban that they will not allow "the use of Afghan territory against third countries." The Taliban say they have "very good" relations with Russia, China and Pakistan. Moreover, they asked Russian diplomats to transfer to the militias in the Panjshersky Gorge an offer to peacefully resolve the conflict.
Panjsher Province (separated from Parwan into a separate province), being outside the control zone of the new regime, became the base of the resistance movement. It was led by former Vice President Amrullah Saleh and Ahmad Masood, the son of the famous field commander Ahmad Shah Masood, who created the Afghan National Resistance Front or Northern Alliance-2. Their units recaptured the city of Charikar, the administrative center of Parwan, cut the highway connecting Kabul with Mazar-Sharif through the Salang tunnel. Units of the former government army and the population of other provinces can join the resistance forces.
Masood maintains contacts with the Taliban "(a terrorist organization banned in Russia), can compromise and form a government if its composition is not composed exclusively of the Taliban. But the US, as the "great arsenal of democracy," retreating and leaving Afghanistan, and then evacuating, left an arsenal of weapons, ammunition and equipment. The Taliban (a terrorist organization banned in Russia) seized up to a million small arms, billions of rounds of ammunition, and modern American military equipment. This does not contribute to the search for compromise, strengthens the situation of extremists, increases the likelihood of a civil war.
How the United States armed the Taliban
In mid-August, more than two dozen aircraft and more than two dozen helicopters flew to Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. According to the office of the American Special Inspector General for the Reconstruction of Afghanistan as of January 1, 2021, there were 162 aircraft in the Afghan Air Force. Not all of them were serviceable. At the beginning of the year, the country's air force had 50 aircraft, including 17 A-29 light attack aircraft (Embraer EMB 314 Super Tucano) and 10 AC-208 Combat Caravan light attack aircraft, as well as 21 S-208 Cessna Caravan light transport aircraft and two medium S-130 Hercules.
In addition, there were 86 serviceable helicopters: 12 Russian-made Mi-17 transport helicopters, 38 MD 530F light helicopters and 36 UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters, as well as ScanEagle drones. This fleet may be useful to the Taliban for operations in Afghanistan using, in particular, Bagram air base, built in the province of Parwana during the Soviet Union.
Almost all Afghan army combat vehicles, more than 600 armored personnel carriers, about 8.5 thousand Hamvi military SUVs, 150 MaxxPro armored vehicles, about 100 thousand modernized Toyota Hilux and Ford Ranger SUVs passed into the hands of the Taliban "(a terrorist organization banned in Russia)." In the city of Mazar-i-Sharif, the German army arsenal included the Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled artillery mount, Eagle combat vehicles, Dingo universal trucks, other vehicles, including armored personnel carriers, reconnaissance armored vehicles, and armored trucks.
Pakistan hopes for the best
Islamabad's close ties with the Afghan Taliban (a terrorist organization banned in Russia) are known. At the border checkpoint to Afghanistan in Chaman, the flags of Pakistan and the Taliban fly nearby. Forming a Taliban government in Afghanistan for Islamabad. The Cabinet of Ministers of Pakistan held an emergency meeting of the National Security Committee, called on the Taliban to "respect the rule of law, protect the rights of all Afghans, not use Afghanistan for terrorist activities."
To do this, the movement needs to establish power in the border areas, including the provinces in the north. At the same time, five border districts of Badakhshan along the Pyanj River were placed under the control of the Jamaate-Ansarullah group (the banned organization was recognized as terrorist in Russia), which became a matter of concern for the Tajik authorities, where the organization is known as the Tajik Taliban (a terrorist organization banned in Russia).
With the new Afghan regime, Pakistan holds out hopes for strengthening its security as well. The Taliban released Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) fighters from Afghan prisons. In this regard, Islamabad expects that Kabul will be able to subjugate the separatists of Balochistan province and the Pakistani Taliban. The TTP was created in 2007 to impose sharia in Pakistan and resist the "pro-Western" Pakistani government. In 2008, the authorities banned it.
The organization is not united with the Afghan Taliban, but has collaborated with them in the fight against NATO. The TPP area of operation is a tribal belt on the Afghan border (Federal Administration Tribal Territory, or Tribal Zone). Although regime change in Kabul may be considered a geostrategic victory for Pakistan, it will not be easy to force the Taliban to "tame" the TPP and separatists. And the likely strengthening of Islamabad's position in Kabul may not be in the interests of New Delhi.
Tangle of Interest
It is said that both the TPP and the rebels of Balochistan received support from India. On the one hand, in the face of regime change, the transit of Indian goods through Afghanistan and the Iranian port of Chabahar was in doubt. Pakistan's interest included breaking this transit line. On the other hand, Balochistan separatists oppose Beijing's Belt and Road projects in Pakistan.
Joe Biden said he would be happy to visit India, as well as receive Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the White House. Biden intends to hold a summit this year with the leaders of India, Japan and Australia. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that partnership with India will be crucial to ensure stability in the Indo-Pacific region. Under the new conditions, this may primarily apply to the sense of confidence of allies in the United States in the conditions of post-Afghan syndrome.
In a rapidly changing environment, contacts between US and PRC leaders are also gaining special weight. The first contact may take place at the G20 summit in Rome, which is scheduled for October 30-31. Biden has not yet had face-to-face contacts with Xi Jinping, although they spoke by phone.
It is difficult to assume what influence the situation in Afghanistan will have on the content of these meetings. We can expect that the "Afghan factor" to the head of the White House will not add confidence. Circles from the fall of the pro-American regime in Kabul will diverge for a long time. And the twentieth anniversary of the September 11, 2001 attacks will be celebrated a little after the Taliban regained control in Afghanistan, unless Washington asks the Taliban (a terrorist organization banned in Russia) for a delay.