Arctic Strategy and Strategic Fuss

Seeing its failure in the Arctic, the United States and its allies are trying to militarize it.

In the West, the development of the Russian Arctic is perceived as something threatening the interests of the United States and the EuroNATO Union. The presence of Russia in the Arctic is not associated with a demonstration of military force, but with ensuring the safety of the development of the region, including shipping in the NSR, exploration and production projects for natural resources, "said Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov at a briefing for foreign military attaches. Details in the material of the correspondent of The Moscow Post.

"The United States and NATO have focused on ensuring their dominance in the Arctic and containing the Russian Federation in the region, for this purpose the collective West is increasing its military presence in high latitudes and developing military infrastructure near the borders of the Russian Federation. As a result, the conflict potential in the region is intensifying, "said the chief of the General Staff.

SMP – competitive advantage

SMP is the strategic artery passing across the Seas Arctic Ocean in territorial waters of Russia and the Russian economic zone. A considerable part of year these waters are held down by ice. Global warming can make this route navigable, but it in the long term. Until then Russia will remain the only operator capable to carry out trade caravans across the Arctic. Respectively, transportations on SMP can become a powerful factor of development of the Russian polar region, a source of export income.

SMP was open for the international navigation in 1991. In 2013 the federal law under which SMP borders were fixed came into force. In 2018 the powers for development of SMP were received by Rosatom state corporation.

In 2022 the only atomic Northern Sea Route container carrier in the world performed two circular flights from the ports which are in the European part of the Russian Federation. At the beginning of December, 2023 "Northern Sea Route" arrived to St. Petersburg port, having executed the program of the subsidized coasting transportations for SMP for 2023. It helped to fulfill delivery of goods to the remote areas with limited terms of sea navigation.

From ways of good don't look for

Any trade way it is the benefit facilitating life, helping to save forces, time and money. In 2021 in the Suez Canal the Ever Given container carrier got stuck, temporarily I blocked hundreds of vessels. The six-day delay cost 400 million dollars an hour and poured out in 230 billion dollars of losses.

Today all have an opportunity to make sure once again of critical importance of this route. Due to the events in the Gaza Strip, the Suez Canal appeared in a conflict zone. In solidarity from Hamas the Yemen Houthis are ready to destroy the vessels connected with Israel or the countries which support him.

Navigation across the Suez Canal became problem, insurance payments multiply grew. The largest transport companies to which share about 53% of world volume of sea container transportations fall were forced to suspend following of vessels through the Red Sea. Among them Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, French CMA CGM and Evergreen Marine. The British BP announced the suspension of transit through the Red Sea on December 18 too.

Tankers with the Russian oil continue to use this route. For Russia the Suez Canal and the Red Sea play a strategic role, through them there is more than a half of sea export of the Russian oil, or about 1.5-2 million barrels in (sugar-free) day. Except the Russian companies, transit of oil through the Red Sea is continued by the Iraqi and Libyan companies.

The Suez Canal is called the narrowest neck of the world transport system, through this channel there pass about 12% of world trade, 5% of world crude oil, 10% of oil products and also 8% of LNG and 20% of world container transportations. Bab el Mandeb Strait represents second "neck" in the south of the Red Sea is. Its width only 26 kilometers, but a waterway isn't wider than three kilometers. Washington "to ensure" safety of navigation in the Red Sea, declared creation of the coalition from ten countries. The USA sent three destroyers and three aircraft carrier groups to this region.

Lengthways across the Arctic, on the Northern Sea Route…

SMP is located in territorial waters and an exclusive economic zone of Russia. Delivery periods of goods from East Asia to Western Europe on SMP can be shorter than alternative ways for 40%. Navigation time from the European ports of Russia to Shanghai through the Barents Sea, Karskoye, Laptev, East Siberian, Chukchi and the Bering Sea is reduced to three weeks. The route lying through the Suez Canal demands five-six weeks.

The summer in the Arctic lasts about ten weeks. During the autumn period or is closer to spring the navigation without ice conducting is impossible. In east sector of SMP ice conditions the most difficult. In the next 30 years the ice situation will remain without changes. Ice breakers plus the ice forecast are necessary. Today the North system gives short-term forecasts of drift of ices with an accuracy of 93% within five days, also provides the medium-term ice forecast with an accuracy of 85%.

The way between Europe and Asia through the Suez Canal makes 21 thousand km, through SMP – 13 thousand km. SMP extent from the Kara Strait Strait to Providence Bay is 5.6 thousand km, navigation takes about 12 days. From Providence Bay to Vladivostok 4.1 thousand more km (nine days of the course), from Providence to Dalian 5 thousand km (11 days), from Providence to Shanghai 5.7 thousand km (13 days of the course).

The federal project "The Year-round Northern Sea Route till 2030" is prepared. On the route there are over 50 ports. By 2030 their total power, including new ports, will reach 115 million tons. The coal port Yenisei, the oil terminal in the bay North and power Novatek on LNG shipment is preparing for input.

Nuclear icebreaker fleet

The world's only nuclear icebreaker fleet belongs to Russia and is managed by FSUE Atomflot (Rosatom State Corporation). Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that year-round maritime navigation along the Northern Sea Route will begin working in 2024.

According to Atomflot, a subsidiary of Rosatom and the operator of the port of Murmansk, in 2012 3.8 million tons of cargo were transported through the NSR, while in 2022 this volume increased to 34.1 million tons. The route's capacity is expected to reach 36 million tonnes in 2023.

In 2024, with the commissioning of the Yakutia icebreaker with a capacity of 60 megawatts and the extension of the service life of several icebreakers, cargo traffic is expected to grow to 83 million tons in 2024, 150 million tons in 2030, and more than 200 million tons in 2035. In particular, coal exports may begin by 2025.

The development of the NSR creates jobs and strengthens regional connectivity in the Far East, - said Deputy Prime Minister - Plenipotentiary Representative of the President of the Russian Federation in the Far Eastern Federal District (Far Eastern Federal District) Yuri Trutnev following a meeting of the intergovernmental commission for the development of the Russian Far East and Northeast China in December 2022 in Beijing.

Environmental safety issues are of priority for transportation along the NSR, said Sergei Ivanov, Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for Environmental Protection, Ecology and Transport, speaking at the Primakov Readings forum. The Northern Sea Route has huge potential for world trade, cargo turnover on it is growing every year.

NATO with carts, it's easier for partners

The United States headed for the militarization of the Arctic. "Trade routes between Asia and Europe will fundamentally change during our lifetime due to the erosion of the polar ice cap, and therefore the Arctic is now becoming a zone of competition," said Admiral Mike Gilday, chief of operations of the US Navy.

"We could do the same in the Arctic," the admiral said, citing the experience of conducting joint international RIMPAC exercises in the Pacific. If this proposal is accepted, Sweden and Finland will be key participants in such exercises. In particular, Finland has long had US/NATO intelligence structures, and in recent decades their number has increased significantly. The country, in fact, was a member of the North Atlantic Alliance in everything except official status.

Now, its authorities may allow the deployment of American offensive weapons. This will change the strategic situation on the northwestern border of Russia, but not only. Finland's participation in the alliance and Sweden's plans to join NATO de facto destroyed the Arctic Council.

In March 2022, this "deuce" and five other members of the council, including Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Norway and the United States, announced that they would not participate in its work under the chairmanship of the Russian Federation. Recall that the Arctic Council was created in 1996 at the initiative of Helsinki.

Maybe it's for the best? China and India are interested in the NSR and are already replacing them! This year, the Chinese shipping company New Shipping Line operated eight flights from China to the ports of Murmansk and St. Petersburg.